The Sepang weekend board. After each session, official timing is verified against the classification, pace is ranked with the same method used for all 22 rounds in 2025, and the prediction is posted before the next session starts.
No 2026 results are pre-filled. A slot stays as a preview until that session has actually run.
Pooled across all 22 rounds in 2025 — 487 rider-weekends, 377 classified finishers. This is why the sprint post matters most: nothing predicted Sunday better.
Spearman correlation with GP finish — higher is stronger. Hand-plotted from the verified pooled tables.
Sprint caveat: n=335 — only riders who finished both sprint and GP. Its field is already filtered to survivors, which flatters its error.
| Predictor | ρ | Mean err | Within 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sprint finish | 0.77 | 2.7 | 71.3% |
| Grid position | 0.71 | 4.0 | 51.2% |
| Qualifying rank | 0.68 | 4.1 | 51.2% |
| Best lap (all practice) | 0.64 | 4.3 | — |
| Median pace | 0.61 | 4.5 | 48.3% |
| Mean pace | 0.53 | 4.9 | 44.8% |
The reference weekend for this year’s posts. All dry, 496 flying laps recovered across 23 riders — Marc Márquez, Martín and Viñales were absent all weekend.
Bagnaia on pole via Q1, ahead of Álex Márquez and Morbidelli. No grid penalties.
Bagnaia · Álex Márquez · Acosta
NC: Marini, Oliveira, Mir. Aldeguer 7th after an 8s sanction in the revised classification.
Álex Márquez · Acosta · Mir
19 finishers. Bagnaia was the weekend’s hardest row to recover — only 9 flying laps, PR/FP2 mostly missing.
Filled in after each session, scored after the Grand Prix. Nothing here is back-filled.
| After | Prediction | Basis | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| FP1 | — | Early pace ranks | Pending |
| Practice | — | PR best + median pace | Pending |
| Qualifying | — | Grid vs pace combined | Pending |
| Sprint | — | Sprint finish (2025 ρ 0.77) | Pending |
| Grand Prix | — | Scored vs actual result | Pending |